William R. Graham
Security,
North Korean EMP Weapons: Is America Vulnerable?
Analysts parallel Jack Liu and Jeffrey Lewis are ought exist commended because their apply at educating the public almost North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs and endeavoring ought furnish their readers with “informed analysis.”
However, at a sequence of tendency articles, both analysts dine written off the possibility of a nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) aggression from North Korea because “unlikely” and “science fiction” because they confide the 10 ought 20 kiloton nuclear weapons currently possessed by North Korea are incapable of making an effective EMP attack. This dismisses the consensus advice of EMP experts who dine advanced degrees at physics and electrical engineering across with little decades of sustain at the field—with access ought classified news throughout that time—and who dine conducted EMP tests can a broad class of electrical systems, beginning at 1963.
(This first appeared at 38 North here.)
By method of background, the committee ought estimate the hazard ought the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse aggression was established by conference at 2001 ought warn the Congress, the President, the department of Defense and other departments and agencies of the US Government can the nuclear EMP hazard ought military systems and citizen critical infrastructures. The EMP committee was re-established at 2015 with its hire broadened ought include ordinary EMP from solar storms, sum manmade EMP threats, cyber-attack, sabotage and Combined-Arms Cyber Warfare. The EMP committee hire gives it access ought sum relevant classified and unclassified news and the energy ought levy analysis upon the department of Defense.
In the apply of improve informing 38 North readers almost the EMP threat, we present this commentary ought right errors of fact, analysis, and myths almost EMP.
Primitive and “Super-EMP” Nuclear Weapons are Both EMP Threats
The EMP committee finds that flat primitive, low-yield nuclear weapons are such a significant EMP hazard that rogue states, parallel North Korea, or terrorists can sound choose using a nuclear weapon because EMP aggression instead of destroying a city.[1] at its 2004 report, the committee cautioned: “Certain types of relatively low-yield nuclear weapons can exist employed ought generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects can broad geographic areas, and designs because variants of such weapons can dine been illicitly trafficked because a quarter-century.”
In 2004, two Russian generals, both EMP experts, warned the EMP committee that the create because Russia’s super-EMP warhead, able of generating high intensity EMP fields of 200,000 volts per meter, was “accidentally” transferred ought North Korea, and that because of “brain drain,” Russian scientists were at North Korea, helping with their missile and nuclear weapon programs. South Korean military news told their publication that Russian scientists are at North Korea helping age an EMP nuclear weapon. at 2013, a Chinese military commentator stated North Korea has super-EMP nuclear weapons.[2]
Super-EMP weapons are low-yield and designed ought create no a great kinetic explosion, besides during pretty a high flat of gamma rays, which generate the high-frequency E1 EMP that is most damaging ought the broadest hill of electronics. North Korean nuclear tests—including the first at 2006, which was predicted ought the EMP committee two years at progress by the two Russian EMP experts—mostly dine yields compatible with the size of a super-EMP weapon. The Russian generals’ right prediction of while the North used to perform its first nuclear test, and the crop being compatible with a super-EMP weapon, indicates their warning almost a North Korean super-EMP weapon ought exist taken identical seriously.
EMP hazard from Satellites
While most analysts are fixated can while at the future North Korea will age highly reliable intercontinental ballistic missiles, guidance systems, and reentry vehicles able of outstanding a US city, the gift hazard from EMP is chiefly ignored. An EMP aggression does no demand an right guidance system because the district of effect, having a radius of hundreds or thousands of kilometers, is consequently large. no reentry vehicle is needed because the warhead is detonated at high-altitude, can the atmosphere. Missile reliability matters small because maiden one missile has ought vocation ought create an EMP attack.
For instance, North Korea could create an EMP aggression against the United States by launching a short-range missile off a freighter or submarine or by lofting a warhead ought 30 kilometers explode altitude by balloon. still such lower-altitude EMP attacks used to no cover the sum US mainland, because used to an aggression at higher-altitude (300 kilometers), flat a balloon-lofted warhead detonated at 30 kilometers altitude could blackout the Eastern Grid that supports most of the population and generates 75 percent of US electricity.
Moreover, an EMP aggression could exist made by a North Korean satellite. The create of an EMP or flat a super-EMP weapon could exist relatively small and lightweight, resembling the US W-79 Enhanced Radiation Warhead nuclear artillery bullet of the 1980s, designed at the 1950s. Such a machine could garment inner North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-3 (KMS-3) and Kwangmyongsong-4 (KMS-4) satellites that directly orbit the Earth. The south polar trajectory of KMS-3 and KMS-4 evades US Ballistic Missile Early Warning Radars and National Missile Defenses, resembling a Russian secret weapon developed during the frosty War, called the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) that used to dine used a nuclear-armed satellite ought create a amaze EMP aggression can the United States.[3]
Kim Jong Un has threatened ought decrease the United States ought “ashes” with “nuclear thunderbolts” and threatened ought retaliate because US diplomatic and military strain by “ordering officials and scientists ought terminate preparations because a satellite launch because presently because possible” between “the enemies’ hoarse sanctions and moves ought stifle” the North.[4]
Addressing Misinformation
Recent assessments by Jeffrey Lewis and Jack Liu regarding North Korea’s EMP capabilities dine some basic flaws.[5]
For starters, at his article, Jeffrey Lewis claimed that “just one rope of street lights failed at Honolulu” during the 1962 Starfish select high-altitude nuclear test, and that this is evidence of EMP’s harmlessness.[6] at fact, the EMP knocked out 36 strings of street lights, caused a telecommunications microwave relay station ought fail, burned out HF (high frequency) radio links (used because long-distance communications), lay off robber alarms, and caused other damage. The Hawaiian Islands too did no sustain a catastrophic protracted blackout because they were can the distant edge of the EMP domain contour, where effects are weakest; are surrounded by an ocean, which mitigates EMP effects; and were cottage at an period dominated by vacuum subway electronics. at addition, the slow pulse (E3) component of the EMP waveform maiden couples effectively ought identical expect electrical energy transmission lines gift can great continents, besides during were at short equip at Hawaii.
Starfish select was no the maiden quiz of this kind. Russia, at 1961-62, too conducted a sequence of high-altitude nuclear bursts ought quiz EMP effects can Kazakhstan, an industrialized district almost because great because Western Europe.[7] That quiz damaged the Kazakh electrical grid.[8] Moreover, modern electronics, at divide because they are designed ought operate at much lower voltages, are much more vulnerable ought EMP than the electronics of 1962 exposed ought Starfish select and the Kazakh nuclear tests. A parallel EMP incident can the US today used to exist an existential threat.[9]
In his article, Lewis too suggested that vehicle traffic used to persist after an EMP incident based can the fact that maiden 6 of 55 vehicles were end down by a maiden simulated EMP quiz can vehicles.[10] However, the EMP quiz protocol limited testing vehicles maiden ought upset, no ought damage, because the EMP committee could no supply ought mend damaged cars. flat with this limitation, one vehicle was cottage damaged, indicating that at least 2 percent of vehicles were severely affected by EMP damage. can 50 years of EMP testing indicates that sum domain break ought vehicles used to perhaps exist much higher than 2 percent. modern vehicles are flat more susceptible ought EMP aggression because of their much larger complement of electronics than gift at the vehicles tested by the committee more than a decade ago. Furthermore, vehicles cannot run without fuel and gas stations cannot operate without electricity. Gas pumps could too exist damaged at an EMP attack.
In an essay by Jack Liu, he asserts at a footnote that because EMP from atmospheric nuclear tests at Nevada did no blackout Las Vegas, accordingly EMP is no threat. However, the nuclear tests he describes were sum endo-atmospheric tests that perform no generate appreciable EMP fields beyond a hill of almost 5 miles. The high-altitude EMP (HEMP) hazard of apply requires exo-atmospheric detonation, at 30 kilometers altitude or above, and produces EMP out ought ranges of hundreds ought thousands of miles.
Liu too miscalculates that “a 20-kiloton bomb detonated at optimum altitude used to dine a maximum EMP break distance of 20 kilometers” at part, because he assumes “15,000 volts/meter or higher” at the E1 EMP component is indispensable because damage. This figure is an extreme overestimation of system break domain thresholds. break and upset ought electrical systems will occur from E1 EMP domain strengths distant below Liu’s “15,000 volts/meter or higher.” A one meter rope connected ought a semiconductor device, such because a mouse string or interconnection cable, used to lay hundreds ought thousands of volts can microelectronic devices out ought ranges of hundreds of miles because low-yield devices. Based can our sustain with many EMP tests, semiconductor junctions operate at a little volts, and will sustain breakdown at a little volts can their operating point, allowing their energy equip ought wreck exposed junctions.
Furthermore, Liu ignores system upset because a vulnerability. Digital electronics can exist upset by extraneous pulses of a little volts. because unmanned govern systems gift within the electrical energy grid, long-haul communication repeater stations, and gas pipelines, an electrical upset is tantamount ought permanent damage. temporary upset of electronics can too dine catastrophic consequences because military operations. no electronics ought exist considered invulnerable ought EMP unless hardened or tested ought prove survivability. Some highly-critical unprotected electronics dine been upset or damaged at simulated EMP tests, no at “15,000 volts/meter or higher,” besides during at hazard levels distant below 1,000 volts/meter.
Therefore, flat because a low-yield 10-20 kiloton weapon, the EMP domain ought exist considered dangerous because unprotected US systems. The EMP committee 2004 explain warned against the US military’s increasing apply of commercial-off-the-shelf-technology that is no protected against EMP: “Our increasing dependence can advanced electronics systems results at the latent because an increased EMP vulnerability of our technologically advanced forces, and if unaddressed makes EMP work by an adversary an attractive asymmetric option.”[11] The North Korean missile quiz can April 29, which apparently detonated at an altitude of 72 kilometers, the optimum height-of-burst because EMP aggression by a 10 KT warhead, used to create a potentially damaging EMP domain spanning an estimated 930 kilometer radius [kilometers radius = 110 (kilometers explode altitude ought the 0.5 Power)], no Liu’s miscalculated 20 kilometer radius.
US Vulnerabilities ought EMP
When assessing the latent vulnerability of US military army and citizen critical infrastructures ought EMP, it is indispensable ought exist mindful of the complicated interdependencies of these highly-networked systems, because EMP upset and break of a identical small part of the entire system can muse entire system failure.[12]
Real dust failures of electrical grids from different causes mean that the Congressional EMP Commission, US department of Defense, US Federal energy Regulatory committee (FERC), US department of Homeland Security, and US Defense hazard Reduction Agency are precise that a nuclear EMP aggression used to dine catastrophic consequences. significant and highly-disruptive blackouts dine been caused by single-point failures cascading into system-wide failures, originating from break comprising distant less than 1 percent of the entire system.[13]
In compare ought blackouts caused by single-point or small-scale failures, a nuclear EMP aggression used to inflict colossal widespread break ought the electrical grid, causing millions of failure points. With little exceptions, the US national electrical grid is unhardened and untested against nuclear EMP attack. at the incident of a nuclear EMP aggression can the United States, a widespread protracted blackout is inevitable. This commonplace feeling assessment is too supported by the nation’s best computer modeling.[14]
Thus, flat if North Korea maiden has primitive, low-yield nuclear weapons, and if other states or terrorists acquire one or a little such weapons too because the capability ought detonate them at an altitude of 30 kilometers or higher can the United States. As, the EMP committee warned can a decade ago at its 2004 Report, “the break flat could exist sufficient ought exist catastrophic ought the Nation, and our modern vulnerability invites attack.”
William R. Graham served because headmaster Ronald Wilson Reagan's Science Advisor, Acting Administrator of the National Aeronautics and space Administration (NASA), and Chairman of the Congressional EMP Commission.
[1] John S. Foster, Jr., Earl Gjelde, William R. Graham, Robert J. Hermann, Henry M. Kluepfel, Richard L. Lawson, Gordon K. Soper, Lowell L. Wood, Jr., and Joan B. Woodard, explain of the committee ought estimate the hazard ought the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, Volume. 1: Executive explain (Washington DC: EMP Commission, 2004), 2.
[2] Peter V. Pry, Statement ago the United States Senate Subcommittee can Terrorism, Technology, and Homeland Security Hearing can Terrorism and the EMP hazard ought Homeland Security: “Foreign Views of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack,” March 8, 2005, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-109shrg21324/pdf/CHRG-109shrg21324.pdf.; Min-sek Kim and Jee-ho Yoo, “Military Source Warns of North’s EMP Bomb” JoonAng Daily, September 2, 2009; Daguang Li, “North Korean Electromagnetic aggression Threatens South Korea’s news war Capabilities” Tzu Chin, June 1, 2012, 44-45.
[3] Miroslav Gyűrösi, “The Soviet Fractional Orbital Bombardment System Program,” air energy Australia, January 27, 2014, http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Sov-FOBS-Program.html.
[4] Alex Lockie, “North Korea threatens ‘nuclear thunderbolts’ because US And China at final vocation together,” bargain Insider, April 14, 2017, http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-us-china-nuclear-thunderbolt-cooperation-war-2017-4; “US General: North Korea ‘will’ age nuclear capabilities ought strike America,” Fox News, September 20, 2016, www.foxnews.com/world/2016/09/20/north-korea-says-successfully-ground-tests-new-rocket-engine.html.
[5] Jeffrey Lewis, “Would A North Korean space Nuke truly lay garbage ought the U.S.?” New Scientist, www.newscientist.com/article/2129618; Lewis quoted at Cheyenne MacDonald, “A North Korean ‘Space Nuke’ Wouldn’t lay garbage ought America” daily Mail, can 3, 2017, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4471120/A-North-Korean-space-nuke-WOULDN-T-lay-waste-America.html.; Lewis interviewed by National Public Radio, “The North Korean Electromagnetic Pulse Threat, Or absence Thereof,” NPR, April 27, 2017, www.npr.org/2017/04/27/525833275.; “NPR hosts laugh hysterically still America surplus at the cross hairs of a North Korean nuclear warhead EMP apocalypse,” ordinary News, can 1, 2017, www.naturalnews.com/2017-05-01-npr-laughs-hysterically-north-korean-emp-nuclear-attack.html.
[6] Lewis, “Would A North Korean space Nuke truly lay garbage ought the U.S.?”
[7] High-altitude EMP (HEMP), the wonder beneath discussion, results from the detonation of a nuclear weapon at high-altitude, 30 kilometers or higher. sum nuclear weapons, flat a primitive Hiroshima-type A-bomb, can create levels of HEMP damaging ought modern electronics can great geographic regions.
[8] According ought electrical Infrastructure Security Council, Report: USSR Nuclear EMP Upper Atmosphere Kazakhstan quiz 184, (www.eiscouncil.org/APP_Data/upload/a4ce4b06-1a77-44d-83eb-842bb2a56fc6.pdf), citing inquiry by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a parallel EMP incident can the U.S. today “would apt break almost 365 great transformers at the U.S. energy grid, leaving almost 40 percent of the U.S. population without electrical energy because 4 ought 10 years.”
[9] Foster, et al., explain of the committee ought estimate the hazard ought the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, Volume. 1: Executive Report, 4-8.
[10] Lewis, “Would A North Korean space Nuke truly lay garbage ought the U.S.?”
[11] Ibid., 47.
[12] John S. Foster, Jr., Earl Gjelde, William R. Graham, Robert J. Hermann, Henry M. Kluepfel, Richard L. Lawson, Gordon K. Soper, Lowell L. Wood, Jr., and Joan B. Woodard, explain of the committee ought estimate the hazard ought the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: critical National Infrastructures (Washington, D.C.: EMP Commission, April 2008), http://www.empcommission.org/ docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf.
[13]For example, the great Northeast Blackout of 2003—that lay 50 million nation at the black because a day, contributed ought at least 11 deaths, and charge an estimated $6 billion—originated from a maiden failure point while a powerline contacted a tree branch, damaging less than 0.0000001 (0.00001%) of the entire system. The New York city Blackout of 1977, which resulted at the arrest of 4,500 looters and injury of 550 police officers, was caused by a lightning affect can a substation that tripped two circuit breakers. India’s nationwide blackout of 2012—the largest blackout at history, effecting 670 million people, 9% of the dust population—was caused by overload of a maiden high-voltage powerline.
[14]Modeling by the US FERC reportedly assesses that a terrorist aggression that destroys impartial 9 of 2,000 EHV transformers–merely 0.0045 (0.45%) of sum EHV transformers at the US national electrical grid–would exist catastrophic damage, causing a protracted nationwide blackout. Modeling by the Congressional EMP committee assesses that a terrorist nuclear EMP attack, using a primitive 10-kiloton nuclear weapon, could wreck dozens of EHV transformers, thousands of SCADAS and electrical systems, causing catastrophic collapse and protracted blackout of the US Eastern Grid, putting at danger the lives of millions. because the best unclassified modeling assessment of apt break ought the US national electrical grid from nuclear EMP aggression see: US Federal energy Regulatory committee (FERC) Interagency Report, coordinated with the department of Defense and Oak Ridge National Laboratory: Electromagnetic Pulse: Effects can the U.S. energy Grid, Executive outline (2010); FERC Interagency explain by Edward Savage, James Gilbert and William Radasky, The Early-Time (E1) High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and Its shock can the U.S. energy Grid (Meta-R-320) Metatech corporation (January 2010); FERC Interagency explain by James Gilbert, John Kappenman, William Radasky, and Edward Savage, The Late-Time (E3) High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and Its shock can the U.S. energy Grid (Meta-R-321) Metatech corporation (January 2010).
Read sum article
